Geographically-aware Transformer-based Traffic Forecasting for Urban Motorway Digital Twins

The operational effectiveness of digital-twin technology in motorway traffic management depends on the availability of a continuous flow of high-resolution real-time traffic data. To function as a proactive decision-making support layer within traffic management, a digital twin must also incorporate predicted traffic conditions in addition to real-time observations. Due to the spatio-temporal complexity and the time-variant, non-linear nature of traffic dynamics, predicting motorway traffic remains a difficult problem. Sequence-based deep-learning models offer clear advantages over classical machine learning and statistical models in capturing long-range, temporal dependencies in time-series traffic data, yet limitations in forecasting accuracy and model complexity point to the need for further improvements. To improve motorway traffic forecasting, this paper introduces a Geographically-aware Transformer-based Traffic Forecasting GATTF model, which exploits the geographical relationships between distributed sensors using their mutual information (MI). The model has been evaluated using real-time data from the Geneva motorway network in Switzerland and results confirm that incorporating geographical awareness through MI enhances the accuracy of GATTF forecasting compared to a standard Transformer, without increasing model complexity.

CAST-CKT: Chaos-Aware Spatio-Temporal and Cross-City Knowledge Transfer for Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic prediction in data-scarce, cross-city settings is challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and domain shifts. Existing methods often fail to capture traffic's inherent chaotic nature for effective few-shot learning. We propose CAST-CKT, a novel Chaos-Aware Spatio-Temporal and Cross-City Knowledge Transfer framework. It employs an efficient chaotic analyser to quantify traffic predictability regimes, driving several key innovations: chaos-aware attention for regime-adaptive temporal modelling; adaptive topology learning for dynamic spatial dependencies; and chaotic consistency-based cross-city alignment for knowledge transfer. The framework also provides horizon-specific predictions with uncertainty quantification. Theoretical analysis shows improved generalisation bounds. Extensive experiments on four benchmarks in cross-city few-shot settings show CAST-CKT outperforms state-of-the-art methods by significant margins in MAE and RMSE, while offering interpretable regime analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/afofanah/CAST-CKT.

Safe Urban Traffic Control via Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Prediction and World-Model Reinforcement Learning

Urban traffic management demands systems that simultaneously predict future conditions, detect anomalies, and take safe corrective actions -- all while providing reliability guarantees. We present STREAM-RL, a unified framework that introduces three novel algorithmic contributions: (1) PU-GAT+, an Uncertainty-Guided Adaptive Conformal Forecaster that uses prediction uncertainty to dynamically reweight graph attention via confidence-monotonic attention, achieving distribution-free coverage guarantees; (2) CRFN-BY, a Conformal Residual Flow Network that models uncertainty-normalized residuals via normalizing flows with Benjamini-Yekutieli FDR control under arbitrary dependence; and (3) LyCon-WRL+, an Uncertainty-Guided Safe World-Model RL agent with Lyapunov stability certificates, certified Lipschitz bounds, and uncertainty-propagated imagination rollouts. To our knowledge, this is the first framework to propagate calibrated uncertainty from forecasting through anomaly detection to safe policy learning with end-to-end theoretical guarantees. Experiments on multiple real-world traffic trajectory data demonstrate that STREAM-RL achieves 91.4\% coverage efficiency, controls FDR at 4.1\% under verified dependence, and improves safety rate to 95.2\% compared to 69\% for standard PPO while achieving higher reward, with 23ms end-to-end inference latency.

Dual Mind World Model Inspired Network Digital Twin for Access Scheduling

Emerging networked systems such as industrial IoT and real-time cyber-physical infrastructures demand intelligent scheduling strategies capable of adapting to dynamic traffic, deadlines, and interference constraints. In this work, we present a novel Digital Twin-enabled scheduling framework inspired by Dual Mind World Model (DMWM) architecture, for learning-informed and imagination-driven network control. Unlike conventional rule-based or purely data-driven policies, the proposed DMWM combines short-horizon predictive planning with symbolic model-based rollout, enabling the scheduler to anticipate future network states and adjust transmission decisions accordingly. We implement the framework in a configurable simulation testbed and benchmark its performance against traditional heuristics and reinforcement learning baselines under varied traffic conditions. Our results show that DMWM achieves superior performance in bursty, interference-limited, and deadline-sensitive environments, while maintaining interpretability and sample efficiency. The proposed design bridges the gap between network-level reasoning and low-overhead learning, marking a step toward scalable and adaptive NDT-based network optimization.

Quantile-Physics Hybrid Framework for Safe-Speed Recommendation under Diverse Weather Conditions Leveraging Connected Vehicle and Road Weather Information Systems Data

Inclement weather conditions can significantly impact driver visibility and tire-road surface friction, requiring adjusted safe driving speeds to reduce crash risk. This study proposes a hybrid predictive framework that recommends real-time safe speed intervals for freeway travel under diverse weather conditions. Leveraging high-resolution Connected Vehicle (CV) data and Road Weather Information System (RWIS) data collected in Buffalo, NY, from 2022 to 2023, we construct a spatiotemporally aligned dataset containing over 6.6 million records across 73 days. The core model employs Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) to estimate vehicle speed distributions in 10-minute windows, using 26 input features that capture meteorological, pavement, and temporal conditions. To enforce safety constraints, a physics-based upper speed limit is computed for each interval based on real-time road grip and visibility, ensuring that vehicles can safely stop within their sight distance. The final recommended interval fuses QRF-predicted quantiles with both posted speed limits and the physics-derived upper bound. Experimental results demonstrate strong predictive performance: the QRF model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.55 mph, with 96.43% of median speed predictions within 5 mph, a PICP (50%) of 48.55%, and robust generalization across weather types. The model's ability to respond to changing weather conditions and generalize across road segments shows promise for real-world deployment, thereby improving traffic safety and reducing weather-related crashes.

Modelling Pedestrian Behaviour in Autonomous Vehicle Encounters Using Naturalistic Dataset

Understanding how pedestrians adjust their movement when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) is essential for improving safety in mixed traffic. This study examines micro-level pedestrian behaviour during midblock encounters in the NuScenes dataset using a hybrid discrete choice-machine learning framework based on the Residual Logit (ResLogit) model. The model incorporates temporal, spatial, kinematic, and perceptual indicators. These include relative speed, visual looming, remaining distance, and directional collision risk proximity (CRP) measures. Results suggest that some of these variables may meaningfully influence movement adjustments, although predictive performance remains moderate. Marginal effects and elasticities indicate strong directional asymmetries in risk perception, with frontal and rear CRP showing opposite influences. The remaining distance exhibits a possible mid-crossing threshold. Relative speed cues appear to have a comparatively less effect. These patterns may reflect multiple behavioural tendencies driven by both risk perception and movement efficiency.

PIMCST: Physics-Informed Multi-Phase Consensus and Spatio-Temporal Few-Shot Learning for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Accurate traffic flow prediction remains a fundamental challenge in intelligent transportation systems, particularly in cross-domain, data-scarce scenarios where limited historical data hinders model training and generalisation. The complex spatio-temporal dependencies and nonlinear dynamics of urban mobility networks further complicate few-shot learning across different cities. This paper proposes MCPST, a novel Multi-phase Consensus Spatio-Temporal framework for few-shot traffic forecasting that reconceptualises traffic prediction as a multi-phase consensus learning problem. Our framework introduces three core innovations: (1) a multi-phase engine that models traffic dynamics through diffusion, synchronisation, and spectral embeddings for comprehensive dynamic characterisation; (2) an adaptive consensus mechanism that dynamically fuses phase-specific predictions while enforcing consistency; and (3) a structured meta-learning strategy for rapid adaptation to new cities with minimal data. We establish extensive theoretical guarantees, including representation theorems with bounded approximation errors and generalisation bounds for few-shot adaptation. Through experiments on four real-world datasets, MCPST outperforms fourteen state-of-the-art methods in spatio-temporal graph learning methods, dynamic graph transfer learning methods, prompt-based spatio-temporal prediction methods and cross-domain few-shot settings, improving prediction accuracy while reducing required training data and providing interpretable insights. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/afofanah/MCPST.

SATORIS-N: Spectral Analysis based Traffic Observation Recovery via Informed Subspaces and Nuclear-norm minimization

Traffic-density matrices from different days exhibit both low rank and stable correlations in their singular-vector subspaces. Leveraging this, we introduce SATORIS-N, a framework for imputing partially observed traffic-density by informed subspace priors from neighboring days. Our contribution is a subspace-aware semidefinite programming (SDP)} formulation of nuclear norm that explicitly informs the reconstruction with prior singular-subspace information. This convex formulation jointly enforces low rank and subspace alignment, providing a single global optimum and substantially improving accuracy under medium and high occlusion. We also study a lightweight implicit subspace-alignment} strategy in which matrices from consecutive days are concatenated to encourage alignment of spatial or temporal singular directions. Although this heuristic offers modest gains when missing rates are low, the explicit SDP approach is markedly more robust when large fractions of entries are missing. Across two real-world datasets (Beijing and Shanghai), SATORIS-N consistently outperforms standard matrix-completion methods such as SoftImpute, IterativeSVD, statistical, and even deep learning baselines at high occlusion levels. The framework generalizes to other spatiotemporal settings in which singular subspaces evolve slowly over time. In the context of intelligent vehicles and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) systems, accurate traffic-density reconstruction enables critical applications including cooperative perception, predictive routing, and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication optimization. When infrastructure sensors or vehicle-reported observations are incomplete - due to communication dropouts, sensor occlusions, or sparse connected vehicle penetration-reliable imputation becomes essential for safe and efficient autonomous navigation.

HetroD: A High-Fidelity Drone Dataset and Benchmark for Autonomous Driving in Heterogeneous Traffic

We present HetroD, a dataset and benchmark for developing autonomous driving systems in heterogeneous environments. HetroD targets the critical challenge of navi- gating real-world heterogeneous traffic dominated by vulner- able road users (VRUs), including pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists that interact with vehicles. These mixed agent types exhibit complex behaviors such as hook turns, lane splitting, and informal right-of-way negotiation. Such behaviors pose significant challenges for autonomous vehicles but remain underrepresented in existing datasets focused on structured, lane-disciplined traffic. To bridge the gap, we collect a large- scale drone-based dataset to provide a holistic observation of traffic scenes with centimeter-accurate annotations, HD maps, and traffic signal states. We further develop a modular toolkit for extracting per-agent scenarios to support downstream task development. In total, the dataset comprises over 65.4k high- fidelity agent trajectories, 70% of which are from VRUs. HetroD supports modeling of VRU behaviors in dense, het- erogeneous traffic and provides standardized benchmarks for forecasting, planning, and simulation tasks. Evaluation results reveal that state-of-the-art prediction and planning models struggle with the challenges presented by our dataset: they fail to predict lateral VRU movements, cannot handle unstructured maneuvers, and exhibit limited performance in dense and multi-agent scenarios, highlighting the need for more robust approaches to heterogeneous traffic. See our project page for more examples: https://hetroddata.github.io/HetroD/

Generative Engine Optimization: A VLM and Agent Framework for Pinterest Acquisition Growth

Large Language Models are fundamentally reshaping content discovery through AI-native search systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. Unlike traditional search engines that match keywords to documents, these systems infer user intent, synthesize multimodal evidence, and generate contextual answers directly on the search page, introducing a paradigm shift from Search Engine Optimization (SEO) to Generative Engine Optimization (GEO). For visual content platforms hosting billions of assets, this poses an acute challenge: individual images lack the semantic depth and authority signals that generative search prioritizes, risking disintermediation as user needs are satisfied in-place without site visits. We present Pinterest GEO, a production-scale framework that pioneers reverse search design: rather than generating generic image captions describing what content is, we fine-tune Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to predict what users would actually search for, augmented this with AI agents that mine real-time internet trends to capture emerging search demand. These VLM-generated queries then drive construction of semantically coherent Collection Pages via multimodal embeddings, creating indexable aggregations optimized for generative retrieval. Finally, we employ hybrid VLM and two-tower ANN architectures to build authority-aware interlinking structures that propagate signals across billions of visual assets. Deployed at scale across billions of images and tens of millions of collections, GEO delivers 20\% organic traffic growth contributing to multi-million monthly active user (MAU) growth, demonstrating a principled pathway for visual platforms to thrive in the generative search era.